Trends are close to everything, and technical analysis is the sum of all expectations, dreams and hopes. If you understand some technical analysis you can reduce your losses and narrow down the best exit and entry points. Nothing is random, and for us it is all about probabilities as we scan the entire market.
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY: Telenor [Wednesday 22 Mar. 2017]:
Weak Buy Candidate ( 4.73) Evalutation Downgraded
Telenor fell by -0.76% last day from NOK 144.10 to NOK 143.00. . In the last 10 days the price of Telenor has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 3.62% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -0,45 million shares and in total there was bought and sold 2,13 million shares for approx. NOK 304,29 million.
3 MONTH TREND
Telenor lays the middle of a weak rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 7.9% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between NOK 146.08 and NOK 156.72 at the end of this period.
Telenor holds buy signals from both short- and long term moving averages. In addition there is a general buysignal from the relation between the two signals where the short term average is above the long term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at NOK 141.20 and NOK 131.66. A break down bellow any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point at Mon. 06 March 2017 and this indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals issued as well, and these may have some influence on the very short term development. Volume fell together with the price last trading day, and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the pricemovements.
The stock had a Golden Cross Signal in both short, medium and long term. The shortterm Golden Cross Signal was issued Mon. 06 February 2017, the mediumterm Wed. 29 June 2016 and the longterm was issued atMon. 06 February 2017 .
* Golden Cross Signal is when the shortterm moving average, the longterm moving average and priceline meets in a special combination. This combination is very rare and are often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
RELATIVE STRENGHT INDEX (RSI)
RSI14 is 64 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold?
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Telenor finds support from accumulated volume at NOK 132.50, NOK 132.00 and NOK 131.10 On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at NOK 144.10.
The stock is about to test the resistance at NOK 144.10. If this level is broken the stock may move faster and we often see a peak in the end of such a break posing a good sales opportunity as you in 90% of the cases will get a reaction back to the level broken before new gains. A break should be followed by a increasing volume else the break may be false and despite a break of the actual resistance level the stock pretty soon falls back.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. Last day they the stock moved NOK 1.60 between high and low and this equals 1.13%. For the last week the stock has had an daily average volatility of 1.56%.
Several short term signals along with a general good trend are positive and we conclude that current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommandation for this stock from Buy Candidate to Weak Buy Candidate since last evaluation.
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